Universitatea Craiova 3–1 Rapid: Result & Stats

Universitatea Craiova

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Rapid

A. Roguljić 90+2'

J. Marković 82'

G. Cîmpanu 38'

M. Dugandžić 31' (pen)

4/16/2023

Liga I · Championship Round - 4Complex Sportiv Craiova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Universitatea Craiova45%

×Draw24%

Rapid30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Universitatea CraiovaExpected goals in this matchRapid

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.31

Universitatea Craiova

1.65

Rapid

1.31

Universitatea Craiova creates 26% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 7 away

2.15

creates per match

1.33

1.28

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Universitatea Craiova

2.15

Rapid

1.33

allows per match

Universitatea Craiova

1.28

Rapid

1.14

-0.27scores less than expected

finishing

-0.33scores less than expected

finishing

Universitatea Craiova-0.27scores less

Rapid-0.33scores less

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universitatea Craiova ↓

Rapid →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Universitatea Craiova or draw

70%

Universitatea Craiova or Rapid

76%

Draw or Rapid

55%

Winning margin

Universitatea Craiova wins by 2+

24%

Rapid wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Universitatea Craiova 1+ goals

81%

Universitatea Craiova 2+ goals

49%

Universitatea Craiova 3+ goals

23%

Rapid 1+ goals

73%

Rapid 2+ goals

38%

Rapid 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Universitatea Craiova (draw refunded)

60%

Rapid (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universitatea Craiova at home — creates 2.15, concedes 1.28 · 8 matches

Rapid away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universitatea Craiova attack 2.15 + Rapid defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.65

Rapid attack 1.33 + Universitatea Craiova defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Universitatea Craiova scores more

45%

level

24%

Rapid scores more

30%

Universitatea Craiova at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Universitatea Craiova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

14'

14'

30'

31'

M. DugandžićPenalty

38'

G. Cîmpanu↳ Ș. Vlădoiu

45+5'

Ștefan Baiaram

46'

J. Marković← Ș. Baiaram

46'

V. Screciu← A. Mateiu

58'

M. Căpățînă← Ș. Vlădoiu

60'

J. Papeau← Ș. Pănoiu

70'

Horațiu Moldovan

74'

A. Roguljić← G. Cîmpanu

82'

J. Marković

87'

J. Badelj← E. Koljić

90+2'

A. Roguljić↳ A. Ivan

Possession

Shots

Statistics

UniversitateaRapid

Overview

75%Possession25%

19Total Shots3

11Corners1

7Fouls11

Shots

19Total Shots3

7On Target1

11Off Target2

Passing

75%Possession25%

Discipline

7Fouls11

2Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

4Offsides1