Universitatea Cluj 1–1 Universitatea Craiova

Universitatea Cluj

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Universitatea Craiova

D. Nistor 90+1'

N. Bancu 31'

9/23/2023

Liga I · Round 10Cluj Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Universitatea Cluj38%

×Draw27%

Universitatea Craiova34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Universitatea ClujExpected goals in this matchUniversitatea Craiova

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.19

Universitatea Cluj

1.27

Universitatea Craiova

1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 80 home / 155 away

1.41

creates per match

1.38

1.00

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

Universitatea Cluj

1.41

Universitatea Craiova

1.38

allows per match

Universitatea Cluj

1.00

Universitatea Craiova

1.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Universitatea Cluj+0.00on par

Universitatea Craiova+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universitatea Cluj ↓

Universitatea Craiova →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Universitatea Cluj or draw

66%

Universitatea Cluj or Universitatea Craiova

73%

Draw or Universitatea Craiova

62%

Winning margin

Universitatea Cluj wins by 2+

17%

Universitatea Craiova wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Universitatea Cluj 1+ goals

72%

Universitatea Cluj 2+ goals

36%

Universitatea Cluj 3+ goals

14%

Universitatea Craiova 1+ goals

70%

Universitatea Craiova 2+ goals

33%

Universitatea Craiova 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Universitatea Cluj (draw refunded)

53%

Universitatea Craiova (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universitatea Cluj at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.00 · 80 matches

Universitatea Craiova away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.12 · 155 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universitatea Cluj attack 1.41 + Universitatea Craiova defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.27

Universitatea Craiova attack 1.38 + Universitatea Cluj defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Universitatea Cluj scores more

38%

level

27%

Universitatea Craiova scores more

34%

Universitatea Cluj at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Universitatea Cluj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

96

R. Silaghi

Universitatea Cluj · M

7.9

Match Events

31'

N. Bancu

46'

D. Nistor← G. Simion

46'

A. Ivan← J. Marković

56'

A. Chipciu← D. Popadiuc

57'

D. Oancea← A. Peteleu

57'

F. Ilie← K. Doukoure

65'

M. Căpățînă← L. Houri

68'

71'

71'

73'

86'

E. Koljić← A. Mitriță

90+3'

90+5'

90'

90+5'

90+1'

D. Nistor↳ R. Silaghi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UniversitateaUniversitatea

Overview

51%Possession49%

12Total Shots14

1.46Expected Goals (xG)1.52

6Corners3

4Fouls12

Shots

12Total Shots14

4On Target4

5Off Target7

3Blocked3

7Inside Box9

5Outside Box5

Passing

51%Possession49%

488Total Passes477

408Accurate Passes405

84%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

4Fouls12

1Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1

2Offsides2