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Universitatea Cluj vs U Craiova 1948 — Liga II 2018

Universitatea Cluj
Universitatea Cluj
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
U Craiova 1948
U Craiova 1948
3/12/2021Liga IILiga II · Round 19Cluj Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Universitatea Cluj47%
×Draw26%
U Craiova 194827%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Universitatea Cluj
1.47
U Craiova 1948
1.03

Universitatea Cluj creates 43% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 29 away

creates per match

Universitatea Cluj
1.83
U Craiova 1948
1.24

allows per match

Universitatea Cluj
0.83
U Craiova 1948
1.10

finishing

Universitatea Cluj+0.00on par
U Craiova 1948+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universitatea Cluj ↓

U Craiova 1948 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Universitatea Cluj or draw
73%
Universitatea Cluj or U Craiova 1948
74%
Draw or U Craiova 1948
53%

Winning margin

Universitatea Cluj wins by 2+
23%
U Craiova 1948 wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Universitatea Cluj 1+ goals
77%
Universitatea Cluj 2+ goals
43%
Universitatea Cluj 3+ goals
18%
U Craiova 1948 1+ goals
64%
U Craiova 1948 2+ goals
28%
U Craiova 1948 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Universitatea Cluj (draw refunded)
64%
U Craiova 1948 (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universitatea Cluj at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.83 · 58 matches

U Craiova 1948 away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.10 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universitatea Cluj attack 1.83 + U Craiova 1948 defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.47

U Craiova 1948 attack 1.24 + Universitatea Cluj defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Universitatea Cluj scores more
47%
level
26%
U Craiova 1948 scores more
27%

Universitatea Cluj at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Universitatea Cluj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga II: Universitatea Cluj 1–0 U Craiova 1948

Universitatea Cluj beat U Craiova 1948 1-0 in Liga II on March 12, 2021.

The match was played at Cluj Arena in Cluj-Napoca.