Universitatea Cluj 0–3 Rapid: Result & Stats

Universitatea Cluj

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Rapid

J. Papeau 72'

B. Vătăjelu 62' (OG)

M. Dugandžić 45'

7/23/2023

Liga I · Round 2Stadionul Municipal Gaz Metan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Universitatea Cluj38%

×Draw28%

Rapid34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Universitatea ClujExpected goals in this matchRapid

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.16

Universitatea Cluj

1.23

Rapid

1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 14 away

1.17

creates per match

1.23

1.09

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Universitatea Cluj

1.17

Rapid

1.23

allows per match

Universitatea Cluj

1.09

Rapid

1.30

-0.31scores less than expected

finishing

+0.34scores more than expected

finishing

Universitatea Cluj-0.31scores less

Rapid+0.34scores more

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universitatea Cluj ↓

Rapid →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Universitatea Cluj or draw

66%

Universitatea Cluj or Rapid

72%

Draw or Rapid

62%

Winning margin

Universitatea Cluj wins by 2+

16%

Rapid wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Universitatea Cluj 1+ goals

71%

Universitatea Cluj 2+ goals

35%

Universitatea Cluj 3+ goals

13%

Rapid 1+ goals

69%

Rapid 2+ goals

32%

Rapid 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Universitatea Cluj (draw refunded)

52%

Rapid (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universitatea Cluj at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.09 · 7 matches

Rapid away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.30 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universitatea Cluj attack 1.17 + Rapid defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.23

Rapid attack 1.23 + Universitatea Cluj defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Universitatea Cluj scores more

38%

level

28%

Rapid scores more

34%

Universitatea Cluj at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Universitatea Cluj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

31

H. Moldovan

Rapid · G

7.7

Match Events

25'

26'

27'

37'

45'

M. Dugandžić↳ C. Cîrjan

46'

D. Popa← D. Popadiuc

62'

B. VătăjeluOwn goal

66'

I. Filip← O. Bic

66'

A. Calcan← B. Vătăjelu

72'

J. Papeau

80'

P. Iacob← I. Cristea

83'

M. Käit← J. Papeau

83'

V. Costache← R. Oaidă

88'

A. Hofman← I. Stoica

90+1'

Ș. Pănoiu← C. Cîrjan

90+2'

X. Emmers← F. Bamgboye

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UniversitateaRapid

Overview

53%Possession47%

10Total Shots11

0.70Expected Goals (xG)1.12

6Corners6

16Fouls13

Shots

10Total Shots11

4On Target3

3Off Target6

3Blocked2

6Inside Box8

4Outside Box3

Passing

53%Possession47%

361Total Passes312

275Accurate Passes230

76%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

16Fouls13

3Yellow Cards1

5Offsides1