Universitatea Cluj 0–0 FCSB: Result & Stats

Universitatea Cluj

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

FCSB

2/19/2024

Liga I · Round 26Cluj Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Universitatea Cluj36%

×Draw27%

FCSB37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Universitatea ClujExpected goals in this matchFCSB

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.25

Universitatea Cluj

1.24

FCSB

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 80 home / 155 away

1.41

creates per match

1.51

1.00

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Universitatea Cluj

1.41

FCSB

1.51

allows per match

Universitatea Cluj

1.00

FCSB

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Universitatea Cluj+0.00on par

FCSB+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universitatea Cluj ↓

FCSB →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Universitatea Cluj or draw

63%

Universitatea Cluj or FCSB

73%

Draw or FCSB

64%

Winning margin

Universitatea Cluj wins by 2+

16%

FCSB wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Universitatea Cluj 1+ goals

71%

Universitatea Cluj 2+ goals

35%

Universitatea Cluj 3+ goals

13%

FCSB 1+ goals

71%

FCSB 2+ goals

36%

FCSB 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Universitatea Cluj (draw refunded)

50%

FCSB (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universitatea Cluj at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.00 · 80 matches

FCSB away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.07 · 155 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universitatea Cluj attack 1.41 + FCSB defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.24

FCSB attack 1.51 + Universitatea Cluj defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Universitatea Cluj scores more

36%

level

27%

FCSB scores more

37%

FCSB at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "FCSB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff