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Universitatea Cluj vs ACS Sirineasa — Liga II 2018

Universitatea Cluj
Universitatea Cluj
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
ACS Sirineasa
ACS Sirineasa
8/19/2018Liga IILiga II · Round 3Cluj Arena (Cluj-Napoca)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Universitatea Cluj54%
×Draw24%
ACS Sirineasa21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Universitatea Cluj
1.70
ACS Sirineasa
0.97

Universitatea Cluj creates 75% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 84 away

creates per match

Universitatea Cluj
1.83
ACS Sirineasa
1.11

allows per match

Universitatea Cluj
0.83
ACS Sirineasa
1.56

finishing

Universitatea Cluj+0.00on par
ACS Sirineasa+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universitatea Cluj ↓

ACS Sirineasa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Universitatea Cluj or draw
79%
Universitatea Cluj or ACS Sirineasa
76%
Draw or ACS Sirineasa
46%

Winning margin

Universitatea Cluj wins by 2+
30%
ACS Sirineasa wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Universitatea Cluj 1+ goals
82%
Universitatea Cluj 2+ goals
51%
Universitatea Cluj 3+ goals
24%
ACS Sirineasa 1+ goals
62%
ACS Sirineasa 2+ goals
25%
ACS Sirineasa 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Universitatea Cluj (draw refunded)
72%
ACS Sirineasa (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universitatea Cluj at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.83 · 58 matches

ACS Sirineasa away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.56 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universitatea Cluj attack 1.83 + ACS Sirineasa defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.70

ACS Sirineasa attack 1.11 + Universitatea Cluj defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Universitatea Cluj scores more
54%
level
24%
ACS Sirineasa scores more
21%

Universitatea Cluj at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Universitatea Cluj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Universitatea Cluj vs ACS Sirineasa

Universitatea Cluj beat ACS Sirineasa 3-0 in Liga II on August 19, 2018.

The match was played at Cluj Arena (Cluj-Napoca).