Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Universitatea Alexandria W vs Ladies Târgu Mureş W — Liga 1 Feminin 2020

Universitatea Alexandria W
Universitatea Alexandria W
FT
4 – 1
Ladies Târgu Mureş W
Ladies Târgu Mureş W
5/21/2023Liga 1 FemininLiga 1 Feminin · Relegation Round - 9Stadionul Comunal Plosca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Universitatea Alexandria W72%
×Draw14%
Ladies Târgu Mureş W14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Universitatea Alexandria W
3.60
Ladies Târgu Mureş W
1.64

Universitatea Alexandria W creates 120% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 35 away

creates per match

Universitatea Alexandria W
2.75
Ladies Târgu Mureş W
1.34

allows per match

Universitatea Alexandria W
1.93
Ladies Târgu Mureş W
4.46

finishing

Universitatea Alexandria W+0.00on par
Ladies Târgu Mureş W+0.00on par

Total goals

89%Over
  • Over89
  • Under11

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universitatea Alexandria W ↓

Ladies Târgu Mureş W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–13%
1–23%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–17%
4–25%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (7%) · grid covers 74% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
89%11%3.5
75%25%4.5
57%43%

Double chance

Universitatea Alexandria W or draw
86%
Universitatea Alexandria W or Ladies Târgu Mureş W
86%
Draw or Ladies Târgu Mureş W
28%

Winning margin

Universitatea Alexandria W wins by 2+
54%
Ladies Târgu Mureş W wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Universitatea Alexandria W 1+ goals
97%
Universitatea Alexandria W 2+ goals
86%
Universitatea Alexandria W 3+ goals
67%
Ladies Târgu Mureş W 1+ goals
81%
Ladies Târgu Mureş W 2+ goals
49%
Ladies Târgu Mureş W 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Universitatea Alexandria W (draw refunded)
83%
Ladies Târgu Mureş W (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
75%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universitatea Alexandria W at home — creates 2.75, concedes 1.93 · 44 matches

Ladies Târgu Mureş W away — creates 1.34, concedes 4.46 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universitatea Alexandria W attack 2.75 + Ladies Târgu Mureş W defence 4.46 → ÷2 → 3.60

Ladies Târgu Mureş W attack 1.34 + Universitatea Alexandria W defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Universitatea Alexandria W scores more
72%
level
14%
Ladies Târgu Mureş W scores more
14%

Universitatea Alexandria W at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Universitatea Alexandria W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Universitatea Alexandria W vs Ladies Târgu Mureş W

Universitatea Alexandria W beat Ladies Târgu Mureş W 4-1 in Liga 1 Feminin on May 21, 2023.

The match was played at Stadionul Comunal Plosca in Plosca.