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Universitario vs FBC Melgar — Primera División 2026

Universitario
Universitario
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
FBC Melgar
FBC Melgar
2/18/2024Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 4Estadio Monumental

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Universitario47%
×Draw26%
FBC Melgar27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Universitario
1.48
FBC Melgar
1.07

Universitario creates 38% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Universitario
1.72
FBC Melgar
1.55

allows per match

Universitario
0.59
FBC Melgar
1.23

finishing

Universitario-0.05on par
FBC Melgar-0.55scores less

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universitario ↓

FBC Melgar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Universitario or draw
73%
Universitario or FBC Melgar
74%
Draw or FBC Melgar
53%

Winning margin

Universitario wins by 2+
23%
FBC Melgar wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Universitario 1+ goals
77%
Universitario 2+ goals
43%
Universitario 3+ goals
19%
FBC Melgar 1+ goals
66%
FBC Melgar 2+ goals
29%
FBC Melgar 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Universitario (draw refunded)
63%
FBC Melgar (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universitario at home — creates 1.72, concedes 0.59 · 6 matches

FBC Melgar away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.23 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universitario attack 1.72 + FBC Melgar defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.48

FBC Melgar attack 1.55 + Universitario defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Universitario scores more
47%
level
26%
FBC Melgar scores more
27%

Universitario at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Universitario will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Universitario vs FBC Melgar

Universitario beat FBC Melgar 2-0 in Primera División on February 18, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Monumental in Lima.