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Universitario vs Cusco — Primera División 2026

Universitario
Universitario
Preview
01:30
Cusco
Cusco
7/25/2026Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 2Estadio Monumental
Big match
51%
Universitario
model favours
51%24%25%

Universitario score first in only 32% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
52%
over 2.5 goals
54%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Universitario51%
×Draw24%
Cusco25%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Universitario
1.67
Cusco
1.09

Universitario creates 53% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

creates per match

Universitario
1.72
Cusco
1.60

allows per match

Universitario
0.59
Cusco
1.63

finishing

Universitario-0.05on par
Cusco+0.40scores more

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universitario ↓

Cusco →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Universitario or draw
75%
Universitario or Cusco
76%
Draw or Cusco
49%

Winning margin

Universitario wins by 2+
27%
Cusco wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Universitario 1+ goals
81%
Universitario 2+ goals
50%
Universitario 3+ goals
23%
Cusco 1+ goals
66%
Cusco 2+ goals
30%
Cusco 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Universitario (draw refunded)
67%
Cusco (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universitario at home — creates 1.72, concedes 0.59 · 6 matches

Cusco away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.63 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universitario attack 1.72 + Cusco defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.67

Cusco attack 1.60 + Universitario defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Universitario scores more
51%
level
24%
Cusco scores more
25%

Universitario at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Universitario will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 68% of Universitario’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Both teams score in only 31% of Cusco’s matches
  • Cusco win just 37% against the top half (vs 62% against the bottom)
  • 41% of Cusco’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • Style contrast — Universitario play Attack-heavy, Cusco Possession-dominant

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Universitario
Attack-heavy
Cusco
Possession-dominant
53%Possession56%
79%Pass accuracy84%
15.7ShotsBiggest gap12.9
1.61xG1.51
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
UniversitarioCusco

Head-to-head

9 previous meetings

5
Universitario
3
Draws
1
Cusco
Avg goals: 2.6BTTS: 67%
1–13–20–21–11–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Universitario
WWDL
Cusco
WLLDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Universitario face Cusco (Primera División)

Primera División returns with Universitario hosting Cusco. Match starts July 25, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Universitario host Cusco at Estadio Monumental.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.