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Universitario de Vinto vs Guabirá — Primera División 2026

Universitario de Vinto
Universitario de Vinto
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Guabirá
Guabirá
12/1/2023Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 33Estadio Félix Capriles

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Universitario de Vinto54%
×Draw23%
Guabirá23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Universitario de Vinto
1.82
Guabirá
1.10

Universitario de Vinto creates 65% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 130 away

creates per match

Universitario de Vinto
1.36
Guabirá
0.92

allows per match

Universitario de Vinto
1.29
Guabirá
2.28

finishing

Universitario de Vinto+0.00on par
Guabirá+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universitario de Vinto ↓

Guabirá →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Universitario de Vinto or draw
77%
Universitario de Vinto or Guabirá
77%
Draw or Guabirá
46%

Winning margin

Universitario de Vinto wins by 2+
31%
Guabirá wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Universitario de Vinto 1+ goals
84%
Universitario de Vinto 2+ goals
54%
Universitario de Vinto 3+ goals
27%
Guabirá 1+ goals
67%
Guabirá 2+ goals
30%
Guabirá 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Universitario de Vinto (draw refunded)
70%
Guabirá (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universitario de Vinto at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.29 · 78 matches

Guabirá away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.28 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universitario de Vinto attack 1.36 + Guabirá defence 2.28 → ÷2 → 1.82

Guabirá attack 0.92 + Universitario de Vinto defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Universitario de Vinto scores more
54%
level
23%
Guabirá scores more
23%

Universitario de Vinto at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Universitario de Vinto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Universitario de Vinto 1–0 Guabirá

Universitario de Vinto beat Guabirá 1-0 in Primera División on December 1, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Félix Capriles in Cochabamba.