Universidad Catolica 2–2 Delfin SC: Result & Stats

Universidad Catolica

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Delfin SC

K. Minda 51'

I. Díaz 27'

M. Reyes 70'

J. Ruíz 46'

10/24/2023

Liga Pro · 2nd Round - 10Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Universidad Catolica67%

×Draw23%

Delfin SC10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Universidad CatolicaExpected goals in this matchDelfin SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

0.50

Universidad Catolica

1.69

Delfin SC

0.50

Universidad Catolica creates 238% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 9 away

2.22

creates per match

0.38

0.62

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Universidad Catolica

2.22

Delfin SC

0.38

allows per match

Universidad Catolica

0.62

Delfin SC

1.16

+0.64scores more than expected

finishing

-0.16scores less than expected

finishing

Universidad Catolica+0.64scores more

Delfin SC-0.16scores less

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No68
Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universidad Catolica ↓

Delfin SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–16%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–19%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–016%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–15%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–12%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Universidad Catolica or draw

90%

Universidad Catolica or Delfin SC

77%

Draw or Delfin SC

33%

Winning margin

Universidad Catolica wins by 2+

38%

Delfin SC wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Universidad Catolica 1+ goals

82%

Universidad Catolica 2+ goals

50%

Universidad Catolica 3+ goals

24%

Delfin SC 1+ goals

39%

Delfin SC 2+ goals

9%

Delfin SC 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Universidad Catolica (draw refunded)

86%

Delfin SC (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universidad Catolica at home — creates 2.22, concedes 0.62 · 7 matches

Delfin SC away — creates 0.38, concedes 1.16 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universidad Catolica attack 2.22 + Delfin SC defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.69

Delfin SC attack 0.38 + Universidad Catolica defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Universidad Catolica scores more

67%

level

23%

Delfin SC scores more

10%

Universidad Catolica at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Universidad Catolica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30

I. Díaz

Universidad Catolica · F

7.6

Match Events

27'

I. Díaz

31'

Cristian García

46'

L. Castro← Cristian Gabriel García

46'

J. Ruíz

51'

K. Minda↳ M. Díaz

67'

N. Molina← A. Rodríguez

70'

M. Reyes↳ R. Jaramillo

71'

Maikel Reyes

71'

C. Colmán← F. Andrada

84'

Mauro Díaz

89'

M. Ferreira← B. Oyola

90+3'

Gregori Anangonó

90+2'

Facundo Castelli

90+3'

J. Alman← F. Castelli

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UniversidadDelfin

Overview

70%Possession30%

21Total Shots10

7Corners0

10Fouls7

Shots

21Total Shots10

10On Target5

9Off Target4

2Blocked1

11Inside Box5

10Outside Box5

Passing

70%Possession30%

503Total Passes208

442Accurate Passes147

88%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

3Saves8

Discipline

10Fouls7

2Yellow Cards3

1Offsides1