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Universidad Catolica vs Aucas — Liga Pro 2026

Universidad Catolica
Universidad Catolica
Preview
20:00
Aucas
Aucas
9/2/2026Liga ProLiga Pro · Round 28
Big match
50%
Universidad Catolica
model favours
50%24%25%

Aucas win just 40% against the top half (vs 67% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
53%
over 2.5 goals
55%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 131+ matches

Universidad Catolica50%
×Draw24%
Aucas25%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Universidad Catolica
1.69
Aucas
1.13

Universidad Catolica creates 50% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 131 away

creates per match

Universidad Catolica
1.92
Aucas
1.22

allows per match

Universidad Catolica
1.03
Aucas
1.46

finishing

Universidad Catolica+0.00on par
Aucas+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universidad Catolica ↓

Aucas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Universidad Catolica or draw
75%
Universidad Catolica or Aucas
76%
Draw or Aucas
50%

Winning margin

Universidad Catolica wins by 2+
27%
Aucas wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Universidad Catolica 1+ goals
82%
Universidad Catolica 2+ goals
50%
Universidad Catolica 3+ goals
24%
Aucas 1+ goals
68%
Aucas 2+ goals
31%
Aucas 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Universidad Catolica (draw refunded)
66%
Aucas (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universidad Catolica at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.03 · 132 matches

Aucas away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.46 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universidad Catolica attack 1.92 + Aucas defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.69

Aucas attack 1.22 + Universidad Catolica defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Universidad Catolica scores more
50%
level
24%
Aucas scores more
25%

Universidad Catolica at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Universidad Catolica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams scored in 9 of the last 10 meetings
  • Style contrast — Universidad Catolica play Possession-dominant, Aucas Defensively solid
  • Their last 10 meetings averaged 4 goals
  • Universidad Catolica fall short of their xG (1.3 vs 1.7 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Universidad Catolica
Possession-dominant
Aucas
Defensively solid
61%Possession53%
84%Pass accuracy80%
14.0Shots10.3
1.67xGBiggest gap1.22
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Universidad CatolicaAucas

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

2
Universidad Catolica
3
Draws
5
Aucas
Avg goals: 4BTTS: 90%
1–26–21–20–03–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Catolica
WWLLL
Aucas
LWWDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Universidad Catolica vs Aucas — Match Preview

Universidad Catolica face Aucas on September 2, 2026 in this Liga Pro fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.