Universidad Catolica 1–1 Aucas: Result & Stats

Universidad Catolica

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Aucas

Bruno Vides 37'

Pablo Burzio 28'

7/20/2019

Liga Pro · Round 18Olimpico Atahualpa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Universidad Catolica56%

×Draw24%

Aucas20%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Universidad CatolicaExpected goals in this matchAucas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

0.95

Universidad Catolica

1.75

Aucas

0.95

Universidad Catolica creates 84% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 6 away

2.12

creates per match

1.19

0.72

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Universidad Catolica

2.12

Aucas

1.19

allows per match

Universidad Catolica

0.72

Aucas

1.37

+0.63scores more than expected

finishing

+0.14scores more than expected

finishing

Universidad Catolica+0.63scores more

Aucas+0.14scores more

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universidad Catolica ↓

Aucas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

28%72%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Universidad Catolica or draw

80%

Universidad Catolica or Aucas

76%

Draw or Aucas

44%

Winning margin

Universidad Catolica wins by 2+

31%

Aucas wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Universidad Catolica 1+ goals

83%

Universidad Catolica 2+ goals

52%

Universidad Catolica 3+ goals

25%

Aucas 1+ goals

61%

Aucas 2+ goals

25%

Aucas 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Universidad Catolica (draw refunded)

73%

Aucas (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universidad Catolica at home — creates 2.12, concedes 0.72 · 8 matches

Aucas away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.37 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universidad Catolica attack 2.12 + Aucas defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.75

Aucas attack 1.19 + Universidad Catolica defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Universidad Catolica scores more

56%

level

24%

Aucas scores more

20%

Universidad Catolica at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Universidad Catolica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'

Marco Mosquera

24'

Jesi Alexander Godoy

27'

Jeison Chalá

28'

Pablo Burzio↳ Carlos Cuero

37'

Bruno Vides

37'

Bruno VidesMissed penalty

41'

Juan Manuel Tévez

43'

Gustavo Orlando Cortez

46'

Richard Mina

51'

Luis Romero

55'

Víctor Figueroa

56'

Guillermo De los Santos

72'

Alexander Alvarado← Pablo Burzio

73'

Matías Rodríguez← Diego Armas

75'

Matías Rodríguez

77'

Edson Montano← Juan Manuel Tévez

84'

Matías Rodríguez

84'

Matías Rodríguez

87'

Bryan Oña← Walter Chalá

90'

Richard Mina

90'

Richard Mina

90'

Exon Gustavo Vallecilla← Jhon Espinoza

Possession

Shots

Statistics

UniversidadAucas

Overview

55%Possession45%

7Total Shots6

6Corners6

17Fouls22

Shots

7Total Shots6

1On Target2

6Off Target4

Passing

55%Possession45%

Goalkeeping

1Saves0

Discipline

17Fouls22

5Yellow Cards5

1Red Cards1

1Offsides3