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United Nordic vs Orebro SK — Superettan 2026

United Nordic
United Nordic
Preview
13:00
Orebro SK
Orebro SK
7/19/2026SuperettanSuperettan · Round 15Sodertalje Fotbollsarena
48%
United Nordic
model favours
48%23%29%

Orebro SK score first in only 19% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
62%
over 2.5 goals
62%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

United Nordic48%
×Draw23%
Orebro SK29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

United Nordic
1.83
Orebro SK
1.36

United Nordic creates 35% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 68 away

creates per match

United Nordic
1.88
Orebro SK
1.09

allows per match

United Nordic
1.63
Orebro SK
1.79

finishing

United Nordic+0.00on par
Orebro SK+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

United Nordic ↓

Orebro SK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

United Nordic or draw
71%
United Nordic or Orebro SK
77%
Draw or Orebro SK
52%

Winning margin

United Nordic wins by 2+
27%
Orebro SK wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

United Nordic 1+ goals
84%
United Nordic 2+ goals
54%
United Nordic 3+ goals
28%
Orebro SK 1+ goals
74%
Orebro SK 2+ goals
39%
Orebro SK 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

United Nordic (draw refunded)
63%
Orebro SK (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

United Nordic at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.63 · 8 matches

Orebro SK away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.79 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

United Nordic attack 1.88 + Orebro SK defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.83

Orebro SK attack 1.09 + United Nordic defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

United Nordic scores more
48%
level
23%
Orebro SK scores more
29%

United Nordic at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "United Nordic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in 81% of Orebro SK’s matches
  • Orebro SK fall short of their xG (0.8 vs 1.1 expected)
  • United Nordic and Orebro SK have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Nordic
DDLDW
SK
WLDDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

United Nordic face Orebro SK (Superettan)

Superettan returns with United Nordic hosting Orebro SK. Match starts July 19, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

United Nordic host Orebro SK at Sodertalje Fotbollsarena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.