United Arab Emirates 2–0 Iraq: Result & Stats

United Arab Emirates

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Iraq

Ismaeil Matar 90+3'

Ahmed Khalil 26'

11/15/2016

League #30 · 3rd Round - 5Mohammad Bin Zayed Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

United Arab Emirates48%

×Draw25%

Iraq26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

United Arab EmiratesExpected goals in this matchIraq

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.08

United Arab Emirates

1.55

Iraq

1.08

United Arab Emirates creates 44% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 8 away

1.85

creates per match

1.25

0.92

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

United Arab Emirates

1.85

Iraq

1.25

allows per match

United Arab Emirates

0.92

Iraq

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

United Arab Emirates+0.00on par

Iraq+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

United Arab Emirates ↓

Iraq →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

United Arab Emirates or draw

74%

United Arab Emirates or Iraq

75%

Draw or Iraq

52%

Winning margin

United Arab Emirates wins by 2+

25%

Iraq wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

United Arab Emirates 1+ goals

79%

United Arab Emirates 2+ goals

46%

United Arab Emirates 3+ goals

20%

Iraq 1+ goals

66%

Iraq 2+ goals

29%

Iraq 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

United Arab Emirates (draw refunded)

65%

Iraq (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

United Arab Emirates at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

Iraq away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

United Arab Emirates attack 1.85 + Iraq defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.55

Iraq attack 1.25 + United Arab Emirates defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

United Arab Emirates scores more

48%

level

25%

Iraq scores more

26%

United Arab Emirates at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "United Arab Emirates will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'

Ahmed Khalil

45+1'

Bashar Rasan Bonyan← Ahmed Yasin

61'

Ismaeel Al Hamadi← Mohamed Abdulrahman

64'

Aymen Hussein← Alaa Abdul Zahra

70'

Khamis Esmaeel

74'

Amjad Attwan Kadhim

74'

Ismaeil Matar← Ahmed Khalil

78'

Brwa Nouri← Amjad Attwan

80'

Saad Abdulameer

85'

Tariq Ahmed

86'

Hassan Ibrahim← Khamis Esmail

90+3'

Ismaeil Matar↳ Ali Ahmed Mabkhout

Possession

Shots

Statistics

UnitedIraq

Overview

53%Possession47%

7Total Shots8

2Corners7

19Fouls15

Shots

7Total Shots8

3On Target4

4Off Target4

Passing

53%Possession47%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

19Fouls15

2Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

0Offsides1