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Unionistas de Salamanca vs Real Unión — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Unionistas de Salamanca
Unionistas de Salamanca
Preview
15:00
Real Unión
Real Unión
9/6/2026Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 2Reina Sofia
Big match
53%
Unionistas de Salamanca
model favours
53%26%21%

Real Unión score first in only 8% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
56%
under 2.5 goals
46%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Unionistas de Salamanca53%
×Draw26%
Real Unión21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unionistas de Salamanca
1.55
Real Unión
0.88

Unionistas de Salamanca creates 76% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 56 away

creates per match

Unionistas de Salamanca
1.44
Real Unión
0.98

allows per match

Unionistas de Salamanca
0.78
Real Unión
1.66

finishing

Unionistas de Salamanca+0.00on par
Real Unión+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unionistas de Salamanca ↓

Real Unión →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Unionistas de Salamanca or draw
79%
Unionistas de Salamanca or Real Unión
74%
Draw or Real Unión
47%

Winning margin

Unionistas de Salamanca wins by 2+
28%
Real Unión wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Unionistas de Salamanca 1+ goals
79%
Unionistas de Salamanca 2+ goals
46%
Unionistas de Salamanca 3+ goals
20%
Real Unión 1+ goals
59%
Real Unión 2+ goals
22%
Real Unión 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Unionistas de Salamanca (draw refunded)
71%
Real Unión (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unionistas de Salamanca at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.78 · 107 matches

Real Unión away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.66 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unionistas de Salamanca attack 1.44 + Real Unión defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.55

Real Unión attack 0.98 + Unionistas de Salamanca defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Unionistas de Salamanca scores more
53%
level
26%
Real Unión scores more
21%

Unionistas de Salamanca at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Unionistas de Salamanca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 79% of Real Unión’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Real Unión have scored in 7 games running
  • Real Unión win just 21% against the top half (vs 51% against the bottom)
  • Both teams scored in 5 of the last 7 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Salamanca
WDWLD
Unión
WLDLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Unionistas de Salamanca vs Real Unión — Match Preview

Unionistas de Salamanca face Real Unión on September 6, 2026 in this Primera División RFEF - Group 1 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Unionistas de Salamanca host Real Unión at Reina Sofia.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.