Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Union Vöcklamarkt vs Bad Gleichenberg — Regionalliga - Mitte 2018

Union Vöcklamarkt
Union Vöcklamarkt
CANC
18:00
Bad Gleichenberg
Bad Gleichenberg
3/19/2021Regionalliga - MitteRegionalliga - Mitte · Mitte - 18Sportzentrum Union Volksbank Vöcklamarkt

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Union Vöcklamarkt46%
×Draw22%
Bad Gleichenberg32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Vöcklamarkt
1.87
Bad Gleichenberg
1.52

Union Vöcklamarkt creates 23% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 75 away

creates per match

Union Vöcklamarkt
1.70
Bad Gleichenberg
1.75

allows per match

Union Vöcklamarkt
1.30
Bad Gleichenberg
2.04

finishing

Union Vöcklamarkt+0.00on par
Bad Gleichenberg+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Vöcklamarkt ↓

Bad Gleichenberg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Union Vöcklamarkt or draw
68%
Union Vöcklamarkt or Bad Gleichenberg
78%
Draw or Bad Gleichenberg
54%

Winning margin

Union Vöcklamarkt wins by 2+
25%
Bad Gleichenberg wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Union Vöcklamarkt 1+ goals
85%
Union Vöcklamarkt 2+ goals
56%
Union Vöcklamarkt 3+ goals
29%
Bad Gleichenberg 1+ goals
78%
Bad Gleichenberg 2+ goals
45%
Bad Gleichenberg 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Union Vöcklamarkt (draw refunded)
59%
Bad Gleichenberg (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Vöcklamarkt at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.30 · 91 matches

Bad Gleichenberg away — creates 1.75, concedes 2.04 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Vöcklamarkt attack 1.70 + Bad Gleichenberg defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.87

Bad Gleichenberg attack 1.75 + Union Vöcklamarkt defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Union Vöcklamarkt scores more
46%
level
22%
Bad Gleichenberg scores more
32%

Union Vöcklamarkt at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Union Vöcklamarkt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Union Vöcklamarkt host Bad Gleichenberg

March 19, 2021: Union Vöcklamarkt take on Bad Gleichenberg in Regionalliga - Mitte. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Union Vöcklamarkt host Bad Gleichenberg at Sportzentrum Union Volksbank Vöcklamarkt.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.