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Union Titus Petange vs F91 Dudelange — National Division 2018

Union Titus Petange
Union Titus Petange
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
F91 Dudelange
F91 Dudelange
4/7/2019National DivisionNational Division · Round 19Stade Municipal de Pétange (Péiteng (Pétange))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Union Titus Petange27%
×Draw23%
F91 Dudelange50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Titus Petange
1.31
F91 Dudelange
1.85

F91 Dudelange creates 41% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 115 away

creates per match

Union Titus Petange
1.51
F91 Dudelange
2.37

allows per match

Union Titus Petange
1.34
F91 Dudelange
1.10

finishing

Union Titus Petange+0.00on par
F91 Dudelange+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Titus Petange ↓

F91 Dudelange →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Union Titus Petange or draw
50%
Union Titus Petange or F91 Dudelange
77%
Draw or F91 Dudelange
73%

Winning margin

Union Titus Petange wins by 2+
12%
F91 Dudelange wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Union Titus Petange 1+ goals
73%
Union Titus Petange 2+ goals
38%
Union Titus Petange 3+ goals
14%
F91 Dudelange 1+ goals
84%
F91 Dudelange 2+ goals
55%
F91 Dudelange 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Union Titus Petange (draw refunded)
35%
F91 Dudelange (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Titus Petange at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.34 · 110 matches

F91 Dudelange away — creates 2.37, concedes 1.10 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Titus Petange attack 1.51 + F91 Dudelange defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.31

F91 Dudelange attack 2.37 + Union Titus Petange defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Union Titus Petange scores more
27%
level
23%
F91 Dudelange scores more
50%

F91 Dudelange at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "F91 Dudelange will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'
Clement Couturier
45'
Kevin Malget
86'
Christian Silaj
89'
Sofian Benzouien

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

National Division: Union Titus Petange 1–3 F91 Dudelange

F91 Dudelange beat Union Titus Petange 3-1 in National Division on April 7, 2019.

Goals: Clement Couturier (14'), Kevin Malget (45'), Christian Silaj (86'), Sofian Benzouien (89').

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Pétange (Péiteng (Pétange)).