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Unión Sur Yaiza vs Gran Tarajal — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Unión Sur Yaiza
Unión Sur Yaiza
FT
5 – 3
HT: 3 – 0
Gran Tarajal
Gran Tarajal
11/13/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 12Estadio Municipal de Yaiza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Unión Sur Yaiza56%
×Draw23%
Gran Tarajal21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unión Sur Yaiza
1.80
Gran Tarajal
1.01

Unión Sur Yaiza creates 78% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 75 away

creates per match

Unión Sur Yaiza
1.85
Gran Tarajal
0.97

allows per match

Unión Sur Yaiza
1.05
Gran Tarajal
1.75

finishing

Unión Sur Yaiza+0.00on par
Gran Tarajal+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unión Sur Yaiza ↓

Gran Tarajal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Unión Sur Yaiza or draw
79%
Unión Sur Yaiza or Gran Tarajal
77%
Draw or Gran Tarajal
44%

Winning margin

Unión Sur Yaiza wins by 2+
32%
Gran Tarajal wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Unión Sur Yaiza 1+ goals
83%
Unión Sur Yaiza 2+ goals
54%
Unión Sur Yaiza 3+ goals
27%
Gran Tarajal 1+ goals
64%
Gran Tarajal 2+ goals
27%
Gran Tarajal 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Unión Sur Yaiza (draw refunded)
73%
Gran Tarajal (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unión Sur Yaiza at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.05 · 65 matches

Gran Tarajal away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.75 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unión Sur Yaiza attack 1.85 + Gran Tarajal defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.80

Gran Tarajal attack 0.97 + Unión Sur Yaiza defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Unión Sur Yaiza scores more
56%
level
23%
Gran Tarajal scores more
21%

Unión Sur Yaiza at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Unión Sur Yaiza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Unión Sur Yaiza vs Gran Tarajal

Unión Sur Yaiza beat Gran Tarajal 5-3 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on November 13, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Yaiza in Lanzarote.