Union Sunchales 1–2 Sportivo Las Parejas

Union Sunchales

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Sportivo Las Parejas

T. Attis 68'

A. Lavezzi 36'

M. Romero 30'

10/16/2021

Torneo Federal A · Group B - 28Estadio Unión de Sunchales

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Union Sunchales43%

×Draw29%

Sportivo Las Parejas28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Union SunchalesExpected goals in this matchSportivo Las Parejas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

0.94

Union Sunchales

1.25

Sportivo Las Parejas

0.94

Union Sunchales creates 33% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 113 away

1.21

creates per match

0.87

1.01

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Union Sunchales

1.21

Sportivo Las Parejas

0.87

allows per match

Union Sunchales

1.01

Sportivo Las Parejas

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Union Sunchales+0.00on par

Sportivo Las Parejas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Sunchales ↓

Sportivo Las Parejas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Union Sunchales or draw

72%

Union Sunchales or Sportivo Las Parejas

71%

Draw or Sportivo Las Parejas

57%

Winning margin

Union Sunchales wins by 2+

19%

Sportivo Las Parejas wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Union Sunchales 1+ goals

71%

Union Sunchales 2+ goals

36%

Union Sunchales 3+ goals

13%

Sportivo Las Parejas 1+ goals

61%

Sportivo Las Parejas 2+ goals

24%

Sportivo Las Parejas 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Union Sunchales (draw refunded)

61%

Sportivo Las Parejas (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Sunchales at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.01 · 85 matches

Sportivo Las Parejas away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.29 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Sunchales attack 1.21 + Sportivo Las Parejas defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.25

Sportivo Las Parejas attack 0.87 + Union Sunchales defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Union Sunchales scores more

43%

level

29%

Sportivo Las Parejas scores more

28%

Union Sunchales at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Union Sunchales will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'

M. Romero

36'

A. Lavezzi

56'

Julián Acosta← V. Quiroga

62'

G. Schonfeld← C. Sánchez

62'

N. Retamar← S. Gutiérrez

62'

N. Speck← A. Lavezzi

68'

T. Attis

88'

A. Rodríguez← J. Paiz

Union

Sportivo

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: A. Tosetto

62'▲G. Schonfeld←▼C. Sánchez

88'▲A. Rodríguez←▼J. Paiz

Union Sunchales substitutes

SchonfeldRodríguez

Manager: L. Fernández

56'▲Julián Acosta←▼V. Quiroga

62'▲N. Retamar←▼S. Gutiérrez

62'▲N. Speck←▼A. Lavezzi

Sportivo Las Parejas substitutes

AcostaRetamarSpeck

Match Recap: Union Sunchales vs Sportivo Las Parejas

Sportivo Las Parejas beat Union Sunchales 2-1 in Torneo Federal A on October 16, 2021.

Goals: M. Romero (30'), A. Lavezzi (36'), T. Attis (68').

The match was played at Estadio Unión de Sunchales in Sunchales, Provincia de Santa Fe.

Union Sunchales vs Sportivo Las Parejas — Torneo Federal A 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Union Sunchales vs Sportivo Las Parejas