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Union Sunchales vs Sportivo Las Parejas — Copa Argentina 2018

Union Sunchales
Union Sunchales
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sportivo Las Parejas
Sportivo Las Parejas
1/24/2018Copa ArgentinaCopa Argentina · Group A - 1st Round QualifyingEstadio Unión de Sunchales (Sunchales, Provincia de Santa Fe)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Union Sunchales45%
×Draw32%
Sportivo Las Parejas23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Sunchales
1.10
Sportivo Las Parejas
0.68

Union Sunchales creates 62% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

creates per match

Union Sunchales
1.00
Sportivo Las Parejas
0.60

allows per match

Union Sunchales
0.75
Sportivo Las Parejas
1.20

finishing

Union Sunchales+0.00on par
Sportivo Las Parejas+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Sunchales ↓

Sportivo Las Parejas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
26%74%3.5
11%89%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Union Sunchales or draw
77%
Union Sunchales or Sportivo Las Parejas
68%
Draw or Sportivo Las Parejas
55%

Winning margin

Union Sunchales wins by 2+
19%
Sportivo Las Parejas wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Union Sunchales 1+ goals
67%
Union Sunchales 2+ goals
30%
Union Sunchales 3+ goals
10%
Sportivo Las Parejas 1+ goals
49%
Sportivo Las Parejas 2+ goals
15%
Sportivo Las Parejas 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Union Sunchales (draw refunded)
67%
Sportivo Las Parejas (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Sunchales at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

Sportivo Las Parejas away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Sunchales attack 1.00 + Sportivo Las Parejas defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.10

Sportivo Las Parejas attack 0.60 + Union Sunchales defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Union Sunchales scores more
45%
level
32%
Sportivo Las Parejas scores more
23%

Union Sunchales at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Union Sunchales will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Union Sunchales 1 – 0 Sportivo Las Parejas

Union Sunchales beat Sportivo Las Parejas 1-0 in Copa Argentina on January 24, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Unión de Sunchales (Sunchales, Provincia de Santa Fe).