Union Sunchales 1–2 Gimnasia Concepción

Union Sunchales

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Gimnasia Concepción

A. Pussetto 11'

J. Piedra 90+3'

Francisco De Souza 67' (pen)

6/22/2022

Torneo Federal A · Group B - 15Estadio Unión de Sunchales

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Union Sunchales50%

×Draw28%

Gimnasia Concepción22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Union SunchalesExpected goals in this matchGimnasia Concepción

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

0.80

Union Sunchales

1.36

Gimnasia Concepción

0.80

Union Sunchales creates 70% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 106 away

1.22

creates per match

0.60

1.01

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Union Sunchales

1.22

Gimnasia Concepción

0.60

allows per match

Union Sunchales

1.01

Gimnasia Concepción

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Union Sunchales+0.00on par

Gimnasia Concepción+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Sunchales ↓

Gimnasia Concepción →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Union Sunchales or draw

78%

Union Sunchales or Gimnasia Concepción

72%

Draw or Gimnasia Concepción

50%

Winning margin

Union Sunchales wins by 2+

24%

Gimnasia Concepción wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Union Sunchales 1+ goals

74%

Union Sunchales 2+ goals

39%

Union Sunchales 3+ goals

16%

Gimnasia Concepción 1+ goals

55%

Gimnasia Concepción 2+ goals

19%

Gimnasia Concepción 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Union Sunchales (draw refunded)

69%

Gimnasia Concepción (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Sunchales at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.01 · 86 matches

Gimnasia Concepción away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.51 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Sunchales attack 1.22 + Gimnasia Concepción defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.36

Gimnasia Concepción attack 0.60 + Union Sunchales defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Union Sunchales scores more

50%

level

28%

Gimnasia Concepción scores more

22%

Union Sunchales at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Union Sunchales will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

A. Pussetto

46'

J. Piedra← N. Musico

46'

J. Sotto← J. Gómez

59'

B. Otero← A. Pussetto

59'

E. Oviedo← J. Ardetti

67'

Francisco De SouzaPenalty

70'

A. Griego← R. Ríos

75'

A. Magoia← A. Rodríguez

79'

M. Solohaga← F. Lovotti

82'

C. Sánchez← F. Robles

90+3'

J. Piedra

Union

Gimnasia

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: W. Grazziosi

59'▲B. Otero←▼A. Pussetto

75'▲A. Magoia←▼A. Rodríguez

82'▲C. Sánchez←▼F. Robles

Union Sunchales substitutes

OteroMagoiaSánchez

Manager: H. Orcellet

46'▲J. Piedra←▼N. Musico

46'▲J. Sotto←▼J. Gómez

59'▲E. Oviedo←▼J. Ardetti

70'▲A. Griego←▼R. Ríos

79'▲M. Solohaga←▼F. Lovotti

Gimnasia Concepción substitutes

PiedraSottoOviedoGriegoSolohaga

Match Recap: Union Sunchales vs Gimnasia Concepción

Gimnasia Concepción beat Union Sunchales 2-1 in Torneo Federal A on June 22, 2022.

Goals: A. Pussetto (11'), Francisco De Souza (67' pen), J. Piedra (90+3').

The match was played at Estadio Unión de Sunchales in Sunchales, Provincia de Santa Fe.

Union Sunchales vs Gimnasia Concepción — Torneo Federal A 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Union Sunchales vs Gimnasia Concepción