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Union Sunchales vs Defensores de Belgrano VR — Torneo Federal A 2018

Union Sunchales
Union Sunchales
FT
1 – 3
HT: 2 – 0
Defensores de Belgrano VR
Defensores de Belgrano VR
10/21/2018Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Zone 2 - 9Estadio Unión de Sunchales (Sunchales, Provincia de Santa Fe)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Union Sunchales44%
×Draw28%
Defensores de Belgrano VR28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Sunchales
1.29
Defensores de Belgrano VR
0.96

Union Sunchales creates 34% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 113 away

creates per match

Union Sunchales
1.22
Defensores de Belgrano VR
0.90

allows per match

Union Sunchales
1.01
Defensores de Belgrano VR
1.35

finishing

Union Sunchales+0.00on par
Defensores de Belgrano VR+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Sunchales ↓

Defensores de Belgrano VR →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Union Sunchales or draw
72%
Union Sunchales or Defensores de Belgrano VR
72%
Draw or Defensores de Belgrano VR
56%

Winning margin

Union Sunchales wins by 2+
20%
Defensores de Belgrano VR wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Union Sunchales 1+ goals
72%
Union Sunchales 2+ goals
37%
Union Sunchales 3+ goals
14%
Defensores de Belgrano VR 1+ goals
62%
Defensores de Belgrano VR 2+ goals
25%
Defensores de Belgrano VR 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Union Sunchales (draw refunded)
61%
Defensores de Belgrano VR (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Sunchales at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.01 · 86 matches

Defensores de Belgrano VR away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.35 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Sunchales attack 1.22 + Defensores de Belgrano VR defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.29

Defensores de Belgrano VR attack 0.90 + Union Sunchales defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Union Sunchales scores more
44%
level
28%
Defensores de Belgrano VR scores more
28%

Union Sunchales at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Union Sunchales will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Torneo Federal A: Union Sunchales 1–3 Defensores de Belgrano VR

Defensores de Belgrano VR beat Union Sunchales 3-1 in Torneo Federal A on October 21, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Unión de Sunchales (Sunchales, Provincia de Santa Fe).