Union St. Gilloise 2–1 Club Brugge KV

Union St. Gilloise

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Club Brugge KV

11/5/2023

Jupiler Pro League · Round 13Stade Joseph Mariën

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 27+ matches

Union St. Gilloise44%

×Draw25%

Club Brugge KV32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Union St. GilloiseExpected goals in this matchClub Brugge KV

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.31

Union St. Gilloise

1.58

Club Brugge KV

1.31

Union St. Gilloise creates 21% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 27 away

2.02

creates per match

1.86

0.77

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Union St. Gilloise

2.02

Club Brugge KV

1.86

allows per match

Union St. Gilloise

0.77

Club Brugge KV

1.15

+0.13scores more than expected

finishing

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

Union St. Gilloise+0.13scores more

Club Brugge KV+0.10scores more

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union St. Gilloise ↓

Club Brugge KV →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Union St. Gilloise or draw

68%

Union St. Gilloise or Club Brugge KV

75%

Draw or Club Brugge KV

56%

Winning margin

Union St. Gilloise wins by 2+

22%

Club Brugge KV wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Union St. Gilloise 1+ goals

79%

Union St. Gilloise 2+ goals

47%

Union St. Gilloise 3+ goals

21%

Club Brugge KV 1+ goals

73%

Club Brugge KV 2+ goals

38%

Club Brugge KV 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Union St. Gilloise (draw refunded)

58%

Club Brugge KV (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union St. Gilloise at home — creates 2.02, concedes 0.77 · 33 matches

Club Brugge KV away — creates 1.86, concedes 1.15 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union St. Gilloise attack 2.02 + Club Brugge KV defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.58

Club Brugge KV attack 1.86 + Union St. Gilloise defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Union St. Gilloise scores more

44%

level

25%

Club Brugge KV scores more

32%

Union St. Gilloise at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Union St. Gilloise will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff