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Union St. Gilloise vs Cercle Brugge — Jupiler Pro League 2018

Union St. Gilloise
Union St. Gilloise
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Cercle Brugge
Cercle Brugge
4/7/2024Jupiler Pro LeagueJupiler Pro League · Championship Round - 2Stade Joseph Mariën

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 23+ matches

Union St. Gilloise53%
×Draw23%
Cercle Brugge24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union St. Gilloise
1.77
Cercle Brugge
1.11

Union St. Gilloise creates 59% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 23 away

creates per match

Union St. Gilloise
2.02
Cercle Brugge
1.45

allows per match

Union St. Gilloise
0.77
Cercle Brugge
1.53

finishing

Union St. Gilloise+0.13scores more
Cercle Brugge-0.10scores less

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union St. Gilloise ↓

Cercle Brugge →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Union St. Gilloise or draw
76%
Union St. Gilloise or Cercle Brugge
77%
Draw or Cercle Brugge
47%

Winning margin

Union St. Gilloise wins by 2+
29%
Cercle Brugge wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Union St. Gilloise 1+ goals
83%
Union St. Gilloise 2+ goals
53%
Union St. Gilloise 3+ goals
26%
Cercle Brugge 1+ goals
67%
Cercle Brugge 2+ goals
30%
Cercle Brugge 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Union St. Gilloise (draw refunded)
69%
Cercle Brugge (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union St. Gilloise at home — creates 2.02, concedes 0.77 · 33 matches

Cercle Brugge away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.53 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union St. Gilloise attack 2.02 + Cercle Brugge defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.77

Cercle Brugge attack 1.45 + Union St. Gilloise defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Union St. Gilloise scores more
53%
level
23%
Cercle Brugge scores more
24%

Union St. Gilloise at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Union St. Gilloise will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Union St. Gilloise vs Cercle Brugge

Cercle Brugge beat Union St. Gilloise 3-2 in Jupiler Pro League on April 7, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Joseph Mariën in Brussels.