Union St. Gilloise 3–2 Cercle Brugge

Union St. Gilloise

FT

3 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Cercle Brugge

J. Daland 90' (OG)

B. Nieuwkoop 75'

K. Mitoma 57'

R. Matondo 24'

E. Utkus 8'

12/18/2021

Jupiler Pro League · Round 20Stade Joseph Mariën

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 30+ matches

Union St. Gilloise51%

×Draw24%

Cercle Brugge25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Union St. GilloiseExpected goals in this matchCercle Brugge

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.15

Union St. Gilloise

1.75

Cercle Brugge

1.15

Union St. Gilloise creates 52% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 30 away

2.02

creates per match

1.53

0.77

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Union St. Gilloise

2.02

Cercle Brugge

1.53

allows per match

Union St. Gilloise

0.77

Cercle Brugge

1.49

+0.13scores more than expected

finishing

-0.20scores less than expected

finishing

Union St. Gilloise+0.13scores more

Cercle Brugge-0.20scores less

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union St. Gilloise ↓

Cercle Brugge →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Union St. Gilloise or draw

75%

Union St. Gilloise or Cercle Brugge

76%

Draw or Cercle Brugge

49%

Winning margin

Union St. Gilloise wins by 2+

28%

Cercle Brugge wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Union St. Gilloise 1+ goals

83%

Union St. Gilloise 2+ goals

52%

Union St. Gilloise 3+ goals

25%

Cercle Brugge 1+ goals

68%

Cercle Brugge 2+ goals

32%

Cercle Brugge 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Union St. Gilloise (draw refunded)

67%

Cercle Brugge (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union St. Gilloise at home — creates 2.02, concedes 0.77 · 33 matches

Cercle Brugge away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.49 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union St. Gilloise attack 2.02 + Cercle Brugge defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.75

Cercle Brugge attack 1.53 + Union St. Gilloise defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Union St. Gilloise scores more

51%

level

24%

Cercle Brugge scores more

25%

Union St. Gilloise at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Union St. Gilloise will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

R. Matondo

Cercle Brugge · F

7.9

Match Events

8'

E. Utkus↳ D. Hotič

20'

Sousa← E. Utkus

24'

27'

29'

45+4'

45'

46'

56'

57'

63'

C. Vanhoutte← H. Van der Bruggen

68'

Thibo Somers

75'

B. Nieuwkoop

77'

Leonardo Lopes

80'

Álex Millán← O. Deman

81'

Vitinho← D. Velkovski

86'

G. François← I. Kandouss

90+6'

D. Marcq← D. Vanzeir

90'

F. Avenatti← L. Lapoussin

90'

J. DalandOwn goal

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UnionCercle

Overview

62%Possession38%

18Total Shots10

7Corners2

14Fouls15

Shots

18Total Shots10

5On Target5

9Off Target4

4Blocked1

13Inside Box7

5Outside Box3

Passing

62%Possession38%

423Total Passes268

279Accurate Passes128

66%Pass Accuracy48%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls15

4Yellow Cards3

3Offsides1