Union St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht — Jupiler Pro League 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 30+ matches
Union St. Gilloise58%
Anderlecht20%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Union St. Gilloise creates 86% more chances
Season form · 33 home / 30 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over56
- Under44
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes55
- No45
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Union St. Gilloise ↓
Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Union St. Gilloise at home — creates 2.02, concedes 0.77 · 33 matches
Anderlecht away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.81 · 30 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Union St. Gilloise attack 2.02 + Anderlecht defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.92
Anderlecht attack 1.29 + Union St. Gilloise defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 1.03
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 58%?"
Union St. Gilloise at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 58% does not mean "Union St. Gilloise will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Anderlecht substitutes
Genk
Club Brugge KV
Standard LiegeAnderlecht
Gent
Antwerp
St. Truiden
Kortrijk
Charleroi
Royal Excel Mouscron
Zulte Waregem
AS Eupen
Cercle Brugge
Oostende
Waasland-beveren
LokerenIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Union St. Gilloise host Anderlecht on Saturday, 12 April 2025 at 18:45. The match is part of the Jupiler Pro League 2018/2019 season.
Match Recap: Union St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht
Union St. Gilloise beat Anderlecht 2-0 in Jupiler Pro League on April 12, 2025.
Goals: P. David (45'), A. Ait El Hadj (82').
Anderlecht controlled possession (57%) and registered 5 shots to 10.
The match was played at Stade Joseph Mariën in Brussels.