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Union St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht — Jupiler Pro League 2018

Union St. Gilloise
Union St. Gilloise
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Anderlecht
Anderlecht
7/28/2023Jupiler Pro LeagueJupiler Pro League · Round 1Stade Joseph Mariën

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 23+ matches

Union St. Gilloise59%
×Draw22%
Anderlecht20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union St. Gilloise
1.99
Anderlecht
1.06

Union St. Gilloise creates 88% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 23 away

creates per match

Union St. Gilloise
2.10
Anderlecht
1.33

allows per match

Union St. Gilloise
0.79
Anderlecht
1.87

finishing

Union St. Gilloise+0.10scores more
Anderlecht-0.20scores less

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union St. Gilloise ↓

Anderlecht →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Union St. Gilloise or draw
80%
Union St. Gilloise or Anderlecht
78%
Draw or Anderlecht
41%

Winning margin

Union St. Gilloise wins by 2+
35%
Anderlecht wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Union St. Gilloise 1+ goals
86%
Union St. Gilloise 2+ goals
59%
Union St. Gilloise 3+ goals
32%
Anderlecht 1+ goals
65%
Anderlecht 2+ goals
29%
Anderlecht 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Union St. Gilloise (draw refunded)
75%
Anderlecht (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union St. Gilloise at home — creates 2.10, concedes 0.79 · 30 matches

Anderlecht away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.87 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union St. Gilloise attack 2.10 + Anderlecht defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.99

Anderlecht attack 1.33 + Union St. Gilloise defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Union St. Gilloise scores more
59%
level
22%
Anderlecht scores more
20%

Union St. Gilloise at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Union St. Gilloise will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Union St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht

Union St. Gilloise beat Anderlecht 2-0 in Jupiler Pro League on July 28, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Joseph Mariën in Brussels.