Union Santa Fe 0–0 Rosario Central: Result & Stats

Union Santa Fe

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Rosario Central

9/20/2019

Liga Profesional Argentina · Round 7Estadio 15 de Abril

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Union Santa Fe44%

×Draw30%

Rosario Central26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Union Santa FeExpected goals in this matchRosario Central

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

0.83

Union Santa Fe

1.18

Rosario Central

0.83

Union Santa Fe creates 42% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 8 away

1.28

creates per match

0.93

0.73

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Union Santa Fe

1.28

Rosario Central

0.93

allows per match

Union Santa Fe

0.73

Rosario Central

1.08

-0.07on par

finishing

-0.30scores less than expected

finishing

Union Santa Fe-0.07on par

Rosario Central-0.30scores less

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Santa Fe ↓

Rosario Central →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Union Santa Fe or draw

74%

Union Santa Fe or Rosario Central

70%

Draw or Rosario Central

56%

Winning margin

Union Santa Fe wins by 2+

19%

Rosario Central wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Union Santa Fe 1+ goals

69%

Union Santa Fe 2+ goals

33%

Union Santa Fe 3+ goals

12%

Rosario Central 1+ goals

56%

Rosario Central 2+ goals

20%

Rosario Central 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Union Santa Fe (draw refunded)

63%

Rosario Central (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Santa Fe at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.73 · 19 matches

Rosario Central away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.08 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Santa Fe attack 1.28 + Rosario Central defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.18

Rosario Central attack 0.93 + Union Santa Fe defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Union Santa Fe scores more

44%

level

30%

Rosario Central scores more

26%

Union Santa Fe at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Union Santa Fe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff