Union Santa Fe 2–0 Lanus: Result & Stats

Union Santa Fe

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Lanus

12/29/2020

Liga Profesional Argentina · Lower Table Round - 3Estadio 15 de Abril

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Union Santa Fe50%

×Draw29%

Lanus21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Union Santa FeExpected goals in this matchLanus

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

0.72

Union Santa Fe

1.27

Lanus

0.72

Union Santa Fe creates 76% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 6 away

1.28

creates per match

0.71

0.73

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Union Santa Fe

1.28

Lanus

0.71

allows per match

Union Santa Fe

0.73

Lanus

1.25

-0.07on par

finishing

+0.12scores more than expected

finishing

Union Santa Fe-0.07on par

Lanus+0.12scores more

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Santa Fe ↓

Lanus →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Union Santa Fe or draw

79%

Union Santa Fe or Lanus

71%

Draw or Lanus

50%

Winning margin

Union Santa Fe wins by 2+

23%

Lanus wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Union Santa Fe 1+ goals

72%

Union Santa Fe 2+ goals

36%

Union Santa Fe 3+ goals

14%

Lanus 1+ goals

51%

Lanus 2+ goals

16%

Lanus 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Union Santa Fe (draw refunded)

70%

Lanus (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Santa Fe at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.73 · 19 matches

Lanus away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.25 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Santa Fe attack 1.28 + Lanus defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.27

Lanus attack 0.71 + Union Santa Fe defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Union Santa Fe scores more

50%

level

29%

Lanus scores more

21%

Union Santa Fe at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Union Santa Fe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff