Union Santa Fe 0–1 Barracas Central: Result & Stats

Union Santa Fe

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Barracas Central

4/25/2019

Copa Argentina · 1st RoundEstadio Julio Humberto Grondona (Avellaneda, Provincia de Buenos Aires)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Union Santa Fe37%

×Draw33%

Barracas Central30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Union Santa FeExpected goals in this matchBarracas Central

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.95

0.83

Union Santa Fe

0.95

Barracas Central

0.83

Union Santa Fe creates 14% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 3 away

1.22

creates per match

0.67

1.00

allows per match

0.67

creates per match

Union Santa Fe

1.22

Barracas Central

0.67

allows per match

Union Santa Fe

1.00

Barracas Central

0.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Union Santa Fe+0.00on par

Barracas Central+0.00on par

Total goals

Under74
Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Santa Fe ↓

Barracas Central →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–114%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

53%47%2.5

26%74%3.5

11%89%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Union Santa Fe or draw

70%

Union Santa Fe or Barracas Central

67%

Draw or Barracas Central

63%

Winning margin

Union Santa Fe wins by 2+

14%

Barracas Central wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Union Santa Fe 1+ goals

61%

Union Santa Fe 2+ goals

25%

Union Santa Fe 3+ goals

7%

Barracas Central 1+ goals

56%

Barracas Central 2+ goals

20%

Barracas Central 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Union Santa Fe (draw refunded)

55%

Barracas Central (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Santa Fe at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

Barracas Central away — creates 0.67, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Santa Fe attack 1.22 + Barracas Central defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.95

Barracas Central attack 0.67 + Union Santa Fe defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Union Santa Fe scores more

37%

level

33%

Barracas Central scores more

30%

Union Santa Fe at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Union Santa Fe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff