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Union Sandersdorf vs Oberlausitz Neugersdorf — Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020

Union Sandersdorf
Union Sandersdorf
CANC
12:30
Oberlausitz Neugersdorf
Oberlausitz Neugersdorf
11/21/2020Oberliga - Nordost-SüdOberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 12Sport- und Freizeitzentrum Sandersdorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Union Sandersdorf53%
×Draw24%
Oberlausitz Neugersdorf23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Sandersdorf
1.73
Oberlausitz Neugersdorf
1.05

Union Sandersdorf creates 65% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 36 away

creates per match

Union Sandersdorf
1.58
Oberlausitz Neugersdorf
0.92

allows per match

Union Sandersdorf
1.19
Oberlausitz Neugersdorf
1.89

finishing

Union Sandersdorf+0.00on par
Oberlausitz Neugersdorf+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Sandersdorf ↓

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Union Sandersdorf or draw
77%
Union Sandersdorf or Oberlausitz Neugersdorf
76%
Draw or Oberlausitz Neugersdorf
47%

Winning margin

Union Sandersdorf wins by 2+
29%
Oberlausitz Neugersdorf wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Union Sandersdorf 1+ goals
82%
Union Sandersdorf 2+ goals
52%
Union Sandersdorf 3+ goals
25%
Oberlausitz Neugersdorf 1+ goals
65%
Oberlausitz Neugersdorf 2+ goals
28%
Oberlausitz Neugersdorf 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Union Sandersdorf (draw refunded)
70%
Oberlausitz Neugersdorf (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Sandersdorf at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.19 · 84 matches

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.89 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Sandersdorf attack 1.58 + Oberlausitz Neugersdorf defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.73

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf attack 0.92 + Union Sandersdorf defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Union Sandersdorf scores more
53%
level
24%
Oberlausitz Neugersdorf scores more
23%

Union Sandersdorf at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Union Sandersdorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Union Sandersdorf host Oberlausitz Neugersdorf

November 21, 2020: Union Sandersdorf take on Oberlausitz Neugersdorf in Oberliga - Nordost-Süd. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Union Sandersdorf host Oberlausitz Neugersdorf at Sport- und Freizeitzentrum Sandersdorf.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.