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Union Sandersdorf vs An der Fahner Höhe — Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020

Union Sandersdorf
Union Sandersdorf
FT
3 – 1
An der Fahner Höhe
An der Fahner Höhe
10/31/2020Oberliga - Nordost-SüdOberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 10Sport- und Freizeitzentrum Sandersdorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Union Sandersdorf50%
×Draw25%
An der Fahner Höhe26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Sandersdorf
1.64
An der Fahner Höhe
1.11

Union Sandersdorf creates 48% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 37 away

creates per match

Union Sandersdorf
1.58
An der Fahner Höhe
1.03

allows per match

Union Sandersdorf
1.19
An der Fahner Höhe
1.70

finishing

Union Sandersdorf+0.00on par
An der Fahner Höhe+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Sandersdorf ↓

An der Fahner Höhe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Union Sandersdorf or draw
74%
Union Sandersdorf or An der Fahner Höhe
75%
Draw or An der Fahner Höhe
50%

Winning margin

Union Sandersdorf wins by 2+
26%
An der Fahner Höhe wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Union Sandersdorf 1+ goals
81%
Union Sandersdorf 2+ goals
49%
Union Sandersdorf 3+ goals
23%
An der Fahner Höhe 1+ goals
67%
An der Fahner Höhe 2+ goals
30%
An der Fahner Höhe 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Union Sandersdorf (draw refunded)
66%
An der Fahner Höhe (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Sandersdorf at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.19 · 84 matches

An der Fahner Höhe away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.70 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Sandersdorf attack 1.58 + An der Fahner Höhe defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.64

An der Fahner Höhe attack 1.03 + Union Sandersdorf defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Union Sandersdorf scores more
50%
level
25%
An der Fahner Höhe scores more
26%

Union Sandersdorf at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Union Sandersdorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Union Sandersdorf vs An der Fahner Höhe

Union Sandersdorf beat An der Fahner Höhe 3-1 in Oberliga - Nordost-Süd on October 31, 2020.

The match was played at Sport- und Freizeitzentrum Sandersdorf in Sandersdorf-Brehna.