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Unión Molinense vs El Palmar — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Unión Molinense
Unión Molinense
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
El Palmar
El Palmar
9/11/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 1Estadio Municipal Sánchez Cánovas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Unión Molinense55%
×Draw24%
El Palmar21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unión Molinense
1.73
El Palmar
0.97

Unión Molinense creates 78% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 111 away

creates per match

Unión Molinense
1.87
El Palmar
1.03

allows per match

Unión Molinense
0.90
El Palmar
1.58

finishing

Unión Molinense+0.00on par
El Palmar+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unión Molinense ↓

El Palmar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Unión Molinense or draw
79%
Unión Molinense or El Palmar
76%
Draw or El Palmar
45%

Winning margin

Unión Molinense wins by 2+
31%
El Palmar wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Unión Molinense 1+ goals
82%
Unión Molinense 2+ goals
52%
Unión Molinense 3+ goals
25%
El Palmar 1+ goals
62%
El Palmar 2+ goals
25%
El Palmar 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Unión Molinense (draw refunded)
72%
El Palmar (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unión Molinense at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.90 · 67 matches

El Palmar away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.58 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unión Molinense attack 1.87 + El Palmar defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.73

El Palmar attack 1.03 + Unión Molinense defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Unión Molinense scores more
55%
level
24%
El Palmar scores more
21%

Unión Molinense at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Unión Molinense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Unión Molinense 1 – 3 El Palmar

El Palmar beat Unión Molinense 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on September 11, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Sánchez Cánovas in Molina de Segura.