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Union Magdalena vs Valledupar — Primera B 2018

Union Magdalena
Union Magdalena
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Valledupar
Valledupar
7/22/2018Primera BPrimera B · Round 1Estadio Sierra Nevada (Santa Marta)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Union Magdalena58%
×Draw24%
Valledupar17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Magdalena
1.66
Valledupar
0.78

Union Magdalena creates 113% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 89 away

creates per match

Union Magdalena
1.86
Valledupar
0.87

allows per match

Union Magdalena
0.70
Valledupar
1.46

finishing

Union Magdalena+0.00on par
Valledupar+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Magdalena ↓

Valledupar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Union Magdalena or draw
83%
Union Magdalena or Valledupar
76%
Draw or Valledupar
42%

Winning margin

Union Magdalena wins by 2+
32%
Valledupar wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Union Magdalena 1+ goals
81%
Union Magdalena 2+ goals
49%
Union Magdalena 3+ goals
23%
Valledupar 1+ goals
54%
Valledupar 2+ goals
18%
Valledupar 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Union Magdalena (draw refunded)
77%
Valledupar (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Magdalena at home — creates 1.86, concedes 0.70 · 86 matches

Valledupar away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.46 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Magdalena attack 1.86 + Valledupar defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.66

Valledupar attack 0.87 + Union Magdalena defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Union Magdalena scores more
58%
level
24%
Valledupar scores more
17%

Union Magdalena at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Union Magdalena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Union Magdalena vs Valledupar

Union Magdalena beat Valledupar 4-0 in Primera B on July 22, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Sierra Nevada (Santa Marta).