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Union La Calera vs Everton de Vina — Primera División 2024

Union La Calera
Union La Calera
Preview
22:00
Everton de Vina
Everton de Vina
7/24/2026Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 16
Big match
42%
Union La Calera
model favours
42%25%33%

Everton de Vina score first in only 19% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
53%
over 2.5 goals
57%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Union La Calera42%
×Draw25%
Everton de Vina33%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union La Calera
1.51
Everton de Vina
1.31

Union La Calera creates 15% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 39 away

creates per match

Union La Calera
1.35
Everton de Vina
1.33

allows per match

Union La Calera
1.30
Everton de Vina
1.67

finishing

Union La Calera+0.00on par
Everton de Vina+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union La Calera ↓

Everton de Vina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Union La Calera or draw
67%
Union La Calera or Everton de Vina
75%
Draw or Everton de Vina
58%

Winning margin

Union La Calera wins by 2+
21%
Everton de Vina wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Union La Calera 1+ goals
78%
Union La Calera 2+ goals
44%
Union La Calera 3+ goals
19%
Everton de Vina 1+ goals
73%
Everton de Vina 2+ goals
38%
Everton de Vina 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Union La Calera (draw refunded)
56%
Everton de Vina (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union La Calera at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.30 · 40 matches

Everton de Vina away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union La Calera attack 1.35 + Everton de Vina defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.51

Everton de Vina attack 1.33 + Union La Calera defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Union La Calera scores more
42%
level
25%
Everton de Vina scores more
33%

Union La Calera at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Union La Calera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Everton de Vina have scored in 10 games running
  • Union La Calera score first in only 28% of matches
  • Both teams score in 75% of Everton de Vina’s matches
  • 48% of Union La Calera’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • Both teams score in only 33% of Union La Calera’s matches
  • Their last 8 meetings averaged just 1.3 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Union La Calera
Balanced
Everton de Vina
Balanced
49%Possession45%
74%Pass accuracy74%
10.8Shots11.0
0.96xGBiggest gap0.63
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Union La CaleraEverton de Vina

Head-to-head

8 previous meetings

5
Union La Calera
1
Draws
2
Everton de Vina
Avg goals: 1.3BTTS: 13%
1–01–01–10–21–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Calera
WLDWW
Vina
WDLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Union La Calera face Everton de Vina (Primera División)

Primera División returns with Union La Calera hosting Everton de Vina. Match starts July 24, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.