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Union Espanola vs Recoleta — Primera B 2026

Union Espanola
Union Espanola
Preview
23:00
Recoleta
Recoleta
7/27/2026Primera BPrimera B · Round 17Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK
51%
Union Espanola
model favours
51%26%23%

Union Espanola score first in only 21% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
56%
under 2.5 goals
47%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Union Espanola51%
×Draw26%
Recoleta23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Espanola
1.52
Recoleta
0.91

Union Espanola creates 67% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 70 away

creates per match

Union Espanola
1.75
Recoleta
0.94

allows per match

Union Espanola
0.88
Recoleta
1.29

finishing

Union Espanola+0.00on par
Recoleta+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Espanola ↓

Recoleta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Union Espanola or draw
77%
Union Espanola or Recoleta
74%
Draw or Recoleta
49%

Winning margin

Union Espanola wins by 2+
26%
Recoleta wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Union Espanola 1+ goals
78%
Union Espanola 2+ goals
45%
Union Espanola 3+ goals
20%
Recoleta 1+ goals
60%
Recoleta 2+ goals
23%
Recoleta 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Union Espanola (draw refunded)
69%
Recoleta (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Espanola at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.88 · 8 matches

Recoleta away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.29 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Espanola attack 1.75 + Recoleta defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.52

Recoleta attack 0.94 + Union Espanola defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Union Espanola scores more
51%
level
26%
Recoleta scores more
23%

Union Espanola at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Union Espanola will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 71% of Union Espanola’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Both teams score in 71% of Union Espanola’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Espanola
LLDDD
Recoleta
DDLDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Union Espanola face Recoleta (Primera B)

Primera B returns with Union Espanola hosting Recoleta. Match starts July 27, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Union Espanola host Recoleta at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.