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Union Edelweiß vs St. Valentin — Landesliga - Oberosterreich 2019

Union Edelweiß
Union Edelweiß
FT
2 – 0
St. Valentin
St. Valentin
3/6/2020Landesliga - OberosterreichLandesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 16Unionplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Union Edelweiß52%
×Draw22%
St. Valentin26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Edelweiß
2.02
St. Valentin
1.39

Union Edelweiß creates 45% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 73 away

creates per match

Union Edelweiß
2.01
St. Valentin
1.40

allows per match

Union Edelweiß
1.38
St. Valentin
2.04

finishing

Union Edelweiß+0.00on par
St. Valentin+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Edelweiß ↓

St. Valentin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Union Edelweiß or draw
74%
Union Edelweiß or St. Valentin
78%
Draw or St. Valentin
48%

Winning margin

Union Edelweiß wins by 2+
30%
St. Valentin wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Union Edelweiß 1+ goals
87%
Union Edelweiß 2+ goals
60%
Union Edelweiß 3+ goals
33%
St. Valentin 1+ goals
75%
St. Valentin 2+ goals
40%
St. Valentin 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Union Edelweiß (draw refunded)
66%
St. Valentin (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Edelweiß at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.38 · 90 matches

St. Valentin away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.04 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Edelweiß attack 2.01 + St. Valentin defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 2.02

St. Valentin attack 1.40 + Union Edelweiß defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Union Edelweiß scores more
52%
level
22%
St. Valentin scores more
26%

Union Edelweiß at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Union Edelweiß will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Oberosterreich: Union Edelweiß 2–0 St. Valentin

Union Edelweiß beat St. Valentin 2-0 in Landesliga - Oberosterreich on March 6, 2020.

The match was played at Unionplatz in Linz.