Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Union Douala vs Les Astres — Elite One 2019

Union Douala
Union Douala
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Les Astres
Les Astres
2/12/2023Elite OneElite One · Round 12Stade de la Réunification

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Union Douala39%
×Draw29%
Les Astres32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Douala
1.16
Les Astres
1.01

Union Douala creates 15% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 75 away

creates per match

Union Douala
1.00
Les Astres
1.03

allows per match

Union Douala
0.99
Les Astres
1.31

finishing

Union Douala+0.00on par
Les Astres+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Douala ↓

Les Astres →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Union Douala or draw
68%
Union Douala or Les Astres
71%
Draw or Les Astres
61%

Winning margin

Union Douala wins by 2+
16%
Les Astres wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Union Douala 1+ goals
69%
Union Douala 2+ goals
32%
Union Douala 3+ goals
11%
Les Astres 1+ goals
64%
Les Astres 2+ goals
27%
Les Astres 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Union Douala (draw refunded)
55%
Les Astres (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Douala at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.99 · 85 matches

Les Astres away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.31 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Douala attack 1.00 + Les Astres defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.16

Les Astres attack 1.03 + Union Douala defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Union Douala scores more
39%
level
29%
Les Astres scores more
32%

Union Douala at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Union Douala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite One: Union Douala 1–2 Les Astres

Les Astres beat Union Douala 2-1 in Elite One on February 12, 2023.

The match was played at Stade de la Réunification in Douala.