Union Douala 2–0 Fortuna Mfou: Result & Stats

Union Douala

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Fortuna Mfou

6/8/2022

Elite One · Round 26Stade de Ngoa Ekélé

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Union Douala39%

×Draw29%

Fortuna Mfou32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Union DoualaExpected goals in this matchFortuna Mfou

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.04

Union Douala

1.19

Fortuna Mfou

1.04

Union Douala creates 14% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 96 away

1.00

creates per match

1.09

0.99

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Union Douala

1.00

Fortuna Mfou

1.09

allows per match

Union Douala

0.99

Fortuna Mfou

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Union Douala+0.00on par

Fortuna Mfou+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Douala ↓

Fortuna Mfou →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Union Douala or draw

68%

Union Douala or Fortuna Mfou

71%

Draw or Fortuna Mfou

61%

Winning margin

Union Douala wins by 2+

17%

Fortuna Mfou wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Union Douala 1+ goals

70%

Union Douala 2+ goals

33%

Union Douala 3+ goals

12%

Fortuna Mfou 1+ goals

65%

Fortuna Mfou 2+ goals

28%

Fortuna Mfou 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Union Douala (draw refunded)

55%

Fortuna Mfou (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Douala at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.99 · 85 matches

Fortuna Mfou away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.39 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Douala attack 1.00 + Fortuna Mfou defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.19

Fortuna Mfou attack 1.09 + Union Douala defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Union Douala scores more

39%

level

29%

Fortuna Mfou scores more

32%

Union Douala at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Union Douala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff