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Union Berlin vs Borussia Monchengladbach — Bundesliga 2026

Union Berlin
Union Berlin
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Borussia Monchengladbach
Borussia Monchengladbach
D. Doekhi 90+7'
K. Behrens 79'
N. Elvedi 33'
10/30/2022BundesligaBundesliga · Round 12Stadion An der Alten Försterei

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 33+ matches

Union Berlin48%
×Draw25%
Borussia Monchengladbach28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Berlin
1.62
Borussia Monchengladbach
1.17

Union Berlin creates 38% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 38 away

creates per match

Union Berlin
1.32
Borussia Monchengladbach
1.15

allows per match

Union Berlin
1.20
Borussia Monchengladbach
1.92

finishing

Union Berlin-0.11scores less
Borussia Monchengladbach-0.15scores less

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Berlin ↓

Borussia Monchengladbach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Union Berlin or draw
72%
Union Berlin or Borussia Monchengladbach
75%
Draw or Borussia Monchengladbach
52%

Winning margin

Union Berlin wins by 2+
25%
Borussia Monchengladbach wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Union Berlin 1+ goals
80%
Union Berlin 2+ goals
48%
Union Berlin 3+ goals
22%
Borussia Monchengladbach 1+ goals
69%
Borussia Monchengladbach 2+ goals
33%
Borussia Monchengladbach 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Union Berlin (draw refunded)
63%
Borussia Monchengladbach (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Berlin at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.20 · 33 matches

Borussia Monchengladbach away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.92 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Berlin attack 1.32 + Borussia Monchengladbach defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.62

Borussia Monchengladbach attack 1.15 + Union Berlin defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Union Berlin scores more
48%
level
25%
Borussia Monchengladbach scores more
28%

Union Berlin at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Union Berlin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17
K. BehrensUnion BerlinUnion Berlin · F
7.7

Match Events

31'
Sheraldo BeckerGoal cancelled
33'
N. Elvedi↳ L. Stindl
59'
C. Trimmel← T. Puchacz
59'
S. Michel← J. Siebatcheu
59'
G. Haraguchi← A. Schäfer
64'
Sven Michel
67'
Marcus Thuram
74'
J. Leweling← J. Haberer
74'
K. Behrens← S. Becker
74'
L. Netz← A. Pléa
74'
P. Herrmann← N. Ngoumou
79'
Tobias Sippel
79'
K. Behrens↳ Diogo Leite
85'
Y. Borges Sanches← L. Stindl
88'
Christopher TrimmelGoal cancelled
90+5'
Christopher Trimmel
90+1'
Julian Ryerson
90+1'
T. Jantschke← R. Bensebaïni
90+7'
D. Doekhi↳ J. Leweling

Possession

55%Union

Shots

13Union

Pass accuracy

52%Union

Statistics

UnionBorussia
Overview
55%Possession45%
13Total Shots7
6Corners5
17Fouls6
Shots
13Total Shots7
5On Target3
5Off Target4
3Blocked0
7Inside Box4
6Outside Box3
Passing
55%Possession45%
492Total Passes417
412Accurate Passes321
84%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
17Fouls6
3Yellow Cards2
4Offsides0

Bundesliga: Union Berlin 2–1 Borussia Monchengladbach

Union Berlin beat Borussia Monchengladbach 2-1 in Bundesliga on October 30, 2022.

Goals: N. Elvedi (33'), K. Behrens (79'), D. Doekhi (90+7').

Union Berlin controlled possession (55%) and registered 13 shots to 7.

The match was played at Stadion An der Alten Försterei in Berlin.