Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Uničov vs Viktoria Otrokovice — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Uničov
Uničov
FT
7 – 1
Viktoria Otrokovice
Viktoria Otrokovice
8/23/20203. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 3Stadion SK Uničov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Uničov57%
×Draw21%
Viktoria Otrokovice22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Uničov
2.12
Viktoria Otrokovice
1.25

Uničov creates 70% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 68 away

creates per match

Uničov
2.24
Viktoria Otrokovice
1.37

allows per match

Uničov
1.13
Viktoria Otrokovice
1.99

finishing

Uničov+0.00on par
Viktoria Otrokovice+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uničov ↓

Viktoria Otrokovice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Uničov or draw
78%
Uničov or Viktoria Otrokovice
79%
Draw or Viktoria Otrokovice
43%

Winning margin

Uničov wins by 2+
35%
Viktoria Otrokovice wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Uničov 1+ goals
88%
Uničov 2+ goals
62%
Uničov 3+ goals
35%
Viktoria Otrokovice 1+ goals
71%
Viktoria Otrokovice 2+ goals
36%
Viktoria Otrokovice 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Uničov (draw refunded)
72%
Viktoria Otrokovice (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uničov at home — creates 2.24, concedes 1.13 · 83 matches

Viktoria Otrokovice away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.99 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uničov attack 2.24 + Viktoria Otrokovice defence 1.99 → ÷2 → 2.12

Viktoria Otrokovice attack 1.37 + Uničov defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Uničov scores more
57%
level
21%
Viktoria Otrokovice scores more
22%

Uničov at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Uničov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Uničov vs Viktoria Otrokovice

Uničov beat Viktoria Otrokovice 7-1 in 3. liga - MSFL on August 23, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion SK Uničov in Uničov.