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Uniao Trabalhadores vs Betim — Mineiro - 2 2026

Uniao Trabalhadores
Uniao Trabalhadores
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
Betim
Betim
5/10/2023Mineiro - 2Mineiro - 2 · Round 3Estádio Municipal João Havelange

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Uniao Trabalhadores39%
×Draw29%
Betim32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Uniao Trabalhadores
1.16
Betim
1.02

Uniao Trabalhadores creates 14% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 38 away

creates per match

Uniao Trabalhadores
1.27
Betim
1.11

allows per match

Uniao Trabalhadores
0.92
Betim
1.05

finishing

Uniao Trabalhadores+0.00on par
Betim+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 63Over: 3763%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 56Yes: 4456%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uniao Trabalhadores ↓

Betim →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Uniao Trabalhadores or draw
68%
Uniao Trabalhadores or Betim
71%
Draw or Betim
61%

Winning margin

Uniao Trabalhadores wins by 2+
16%
Betim wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Uniao Trabalhadores 1+ goals
69%
Uniao Trabalhadores 2+ goals
32%
Uniao Trabalhadores 3+ goals
11%
Betim 1+ goals
64%
Betim 2+ goals
27%
Betim 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Uniao Trabalhadores (draw refunded)
55%
Betim (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uniao Trabalhadores at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.92 · 26 matches

Betim away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.05 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uniao Trabalhadores attack 1.27 + Betim defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.16

Betim attack 1.11 + Uniao Trabalhadores defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Uniao Trabalhadores scores more
39%
level
29%
Betim scores more
32%

Uniao Trabalhadores at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Uniao Trabalhadores will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'
M. Costa
18'
B. C. Valerio Gonzaga
45'
Marcos Vinicius

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mineiro - 2: Uniao Trabalhadores 0–3 Betim

Betim beat Uniao Trabalhadores 3-0 in Mineiro - 2 on May 10, 2023.

Goals: M. Costa (5'), B. C. Valerio Gonzaga (18'), Marcos Vinicius (45').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal João Havelange in Uberlândia, Minas Gerais.