União Suzano U20 vs Itapirense U20

União Suzano U20

Preview

18:00

Itapirense U20

8/21/2026

Paulista - U20 · Round 13

56%

União Suzano U20

model favours

56%22%22%

53% of União Suzano U20’s goals come after the 75th minute

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

61%

over 2.5 goals

60%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

União Suzano U2056%

×Draw22%

Itapirense U2022%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

União Suzano U20Expected goals in this matchItapirense U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

1.17

União Suzano U20

2.00

Itapirense U20

1.17

União Suzano U20 creates 71% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 17 away

1.53

creates per match

1.12

1.21

allows per match

2.47

creates per match

União Suzano U20

1.53

Itapirense U20

1.12

allows per match

União Suzano U20

1.21

Itapirense U20

2.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

União Suzano U20+0.00on par

Itapirense U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

União Suzano U20 ↓

Itapirense U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

União Suzano U20 or draw

78%

União Suzano U20 or Itapirense U20

78%

Draw or Itapirense U20

44%

Winning margin

União Suzano U20 wins by 2+

33%

Itapirense U20 wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

União Suzano U20 1+ goals

86%

União Suzano U20 2+ goals

59%

União Suzano U20 3+ goals

32%

Itapirense U20 1+ goals

69%

Itapirense U20 2+ goals

33%

Itapirense U20 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

União Suzano U20 (draw refunded)

72%

Itapirense U20 (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

União Suzano U20 at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

Itapirense U20 away — creates 1.12, concedes 2.47 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

União Suzano U20 attack 1.53 + Itapirense U20 defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 2.00

Itapirense U20 attack 1.12 + União Suzano U20 defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

União Suzano U20 scores more

56%

level

22%

Itapirense U20 scores more

22%

União Suzano U20 at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "União Suzano U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

União Suzano U20 and Itapirense U20 have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

U20

LLLDL

U20

WLLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff