Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Unia Skierniewice vs Legionovia Legionowo — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Unia Skierniewice
Unia Skierniewice
FT
5 – 3
Legionovia Legionowo
Legionovia Legionowo
5/1/2021III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 27Stadion Miejski w Skierniewicach

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Unia Skierniewice44%
×Draw23%
Legionovia Legionowo33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unia Skierniewice
1.76
Legionovia Legionowo
1.48

Unia Skierniewice creates 19% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 70 away

creates per match

Unia Skierniewice
1.89
Legionovia Legionowo
1.69

allows per match

Unia Skierniewice
1.28
Legionovia Legionowo
1.63

finishing

Unia Skierniewice+0.00on par
Legionovia Legionowo+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unia Skierniewice ↓

Legionovia Legionowo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Unia Skierniewice or draw
67%
Unia Skierniewice or Legionovia Legionowo
77%
Draw or Legionovia Legionowo
56%

Winning margin

Unia Skierniewice wins by 2+
24%
Legionovia Legionowo wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Unia Skierniewice 1+ goals
83%
Unia Skierniewice 2+ goals
52%
Unia Skierniewice 3+ goals
26%
Legionovia Legionowo 1+ goals
77%
Legionovia Legionowo 2+ goals
43%
Legionovia Legionowo 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Unia Skierniewice (draw refunded)
58%
Legionovia Legionowo (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unia Skierniewice at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.28 · 87 matches

Legionovia Legionowo away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.63 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unia Skierniewice attack 1.89 + Legionovia Legionowo defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.76

Legionovia Legionowo attack 1.69 + Unia Skierniewice defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Unia Skierniewice scores more
44%
level
23%
Legionovia Legionowo scores more
33%

Unia Skierniewice at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Unia Skierniewice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 1: Unia Skierniewice 5–3 Legionovia Legionowo

Unia Skierniewice beat Legionovia Legionowo 5-3 in III Liga - Group 1 on May 1, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski w Skierniewicach in Skierniewice.