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UNAN Managua vs Managua — Primera Division 2026

UNAN Managua
UNAN Managua
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Managua
Managua
2/24/2024Primera DivisionPrimera Division · Clausura - 6Estadio Cacique Diriangén

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

UNAN Managua34%
×Draw25%
Managua41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UNAN Managua
1.31
Managua
1.47

Managua creates 12% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 139 away

creates per match

UNAN Managua
1.45
Managua
1.28

allows per match

UNAN Managua
1.66
Managua
1.17

finishing

UNAN Managua+0.00on par
Managua+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UNAN Managua ↓

Managua →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

UNAN Managua or draw
59%
UNAN Managua or Managua
75%
Draw or Managua
66%

Winning margin

UNAN Managua wins by 2+
15%
Managua wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

UNAN Managua 1+ goals
73%
UNAN Managua 2+ goals
38%
UNAN Managua 3+ goals
14%
Managua 1+ goals
77%
Managua 2+ goals
43%
Managua 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

UNAN Managua (draw refunded)
45%
Managua (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UNAN Managua at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.66 · 91 matches

Managua away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.17 · 139 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UNAN Managua attack 1.45 + Managua defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.31

Managua attack 1.28 + UNAN Managua defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

UNAN Managua scores more
34%
level
25%
Managua scores more
41%

Managua at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Managua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera Division: UNAN Managua 1–3 Managua

Managua beat UNAN Managua 3-1 in Primera Division on February 24, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Cacique Diriangén in Diriamba.