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UNA vs OSS '20 — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

UNA
UNA
FT
3 – 1
OSS '20
OSS '20
10/31/2021Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Zondag - 10Sportpark Zeelst

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

UNA41%
×Draw24%
OSS '2035%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UNA
1.61
OSS '20
1.45

UNA creates 11% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 65 away

creates per match

UNA
1.56
OSS '20
1.48

allows per match

UNA
1.42
OSS '20
1.66

finishing

UNA+0.00on par
OSS '20+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UNA ↓

OSS '20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

UNA or draw
65%
UNA or OSS '20
76%
Draw or OSS '20
59%

Winning margin

UNA wins by 2+
21%
OSS '20 wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

UNA 1+ goals
80%
UNA 2+ goals
48%
UNA 3+ goals
22%
OSS '20 1+ goals
77%
OSS '20 2+ goals
42%
OSS '20 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

UNA (draw refunded)
55%
OSS '20 (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UNA at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.42 · 100 matches

OSS '20 away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.66 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UNA attack 1.56 + OSS '20 defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.61

OSS '20 attack 1.48 + UNA defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

UNA scores more
41%
level
24%
OSS '20 scores more
35%

UNA at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "UNA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UNA 3 – 1 OSS '20

UNA beat OSS '20 3-1 in Derde Divisie - Sunday on October 31, 2021.

The match was played at Sportpark Zeelst in Veldhoven.