UNA Strassen 0–0 Victoria Rosport: Result & Stats

UNA Strassen

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Victoria Rosport

3/3/2024

National Division · Round 19Complexe Sportif Jean Wirtz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 111+ matches

UNA Strassen51%

×Draw23%

Victoria Rosport27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UNA StrassenExpected goals in this matchVictoria Rosport

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

1.31

UNA Strassen

1.89

Victoria Rosport

1.31

UNA Strassen creates 44% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 112 away

1.85

creates per match

1.30

1.31

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

UNA Strassen

1.85

Victoria Rosport

1.30

allows per match

UNA Strassen

1.31

Victoria Rosport

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

UNA Strassen+0.00on par

Victoria Rosport+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UNA Strassen ↓

Victoria Rosport →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

UNA Strassen or draw

73%

UNA Strassen or Victoria Rosport

77%

Draw or Victoria Rosport

49%

Winning margin

UNA Strassen wins by 2+

29%

Victoria Rosport wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

UNA Strassen 1+ goals

85%

UNA Strassen 2+ goals

56%

UNA Strassen 3+ goals

29%

Victoria Rosport 1+ goals

73%

Victoria Rosport 2+ goals

38%

Victoria Rosport 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

UNA Strassen (draw refunded)

66%

Victoria Rosport (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UNA Strassen at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.31 · 111 matches

Victoria Rosport away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.93 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UNA Strassen attack 1.85 + Victoria Rosport defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.89

Victoria Rosport attack 1.30 + UNA Strassen defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

UNA Strassen scores more

51%

level

23%

Victoria Rosport scores more

27%

UNA Strassen at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "UNA Strassen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff