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UNA Strassen vs F91 Dudelange — National Division 2018

UNA Strassen
UNA Strassen
FT
0 – 2
F91 Dudelange
F91 Dudelange
9/16/2018National DivisionNational Division · Round 6Complexe Sportif Jean Wirtz (Strassen (Strossen))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

UNA Strassen31%
×Draw23%
F91 Dudelange46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UNA Strassen
1.47
F91 Dudelange
1.82

F91 Dudelange creates 24% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 115 away

creates per match

UNA Strassen
1.83
F91 Dudelange
2.37

allows per match

UNA Strassen
1.27
F91 Dudelange
1.10

finishing

UNA Strassen+0.00on par
F91 Dudelange+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UNA Strassen ↓

F91 Dudelange →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

UNA Strassen or draw
54%
UNA Strassen or F91 Dudelange
77%
Draw or F91 Dudelange
69%

Winning margin

UNA Strassen wins by 2+
14%
F91 Dudelange wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

UNA Strassen 1+ goals
77%
UNA Strassen 2+ goals
43%
UNA Strassen 3+ goals
18%
F91 Dudelange 1+ goals
84%
F91 Dudelange 2+ goals
54%
F91 Dudelange 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

UNA Strassen (draw refunded)
41%
F91 Dudelange (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UNA Strassen at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.27 · 108 matches

F91 Dudelange away — creates 2.37, concedes 1.10 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UNA Strassen attack 1.83 + F91 Dudelange defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.47

F91 Dudelange attack 2.37 + UNA Strassen defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

UNA Strassen scores more
31%
level
23%
F91 Dudelange scores more
46%

F91 Dudelange at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "F91 Dudelange will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: UNA Strassen vs F91 Dudelange

F91 Dudelange beat UNA Strassen 2-0 in National Division on September 16, 2018.

The match was played at Complexe Sportif Jean Wirtz (Strassen (Strossen)).