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UMECIT vs Union Cocle — Liga Panameña de Fútbol 2018

UMECIT
UMECIT
Preview
01:30
Union Cocle
Union Cocle
9/22/2026Liga Panameña de FútbolLiga Panameña de Fútbol · Apertura - 9
Big match
38%
UMECIT
model favours
38%31%31%

Top-of-the-table clash — UMECIT 3 vs Union Cocle 2

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
68%
under 2.5 goals
39%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

UMECIT38%
×Draw31%
Union Cocle31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UMECIT
1.05
Union Cocle
0.93

UMECIT creates 13% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 8 away

creates per match

UMECIT
1.23
Union Cocle
0.88

allows per match

UMECIT
0.98
Union Cocle
0.88

finishing

UMECIT+0.00on par
Union Cocle+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UMECIT ↓

Union Cocle →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

UMECIT or draw
69%
UMECIT or Union Cocle
69%
Draw or Union Cocle
62%

Winning margin

UMECIT wins by 2+
15%
Union Cocle wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

UMECIT 1+ goals
65%
UMECIT 2+ goals
28%
UMECIT 3+ goals
9%
Union Cocle 1+ goals
61%
Union Cocle 2+ goals
24%
Union Cocle 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

UMECIT (draw refunded)
55%
Union Cocle (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UMECIT at home — creates 1.23, concedes 0.98 · 57 matches

Union Cocle away — creates 0.88, concedes 0.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UMECIT attack 1.23 + Union Cocle defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.05

Union Cocle attack 0.88 + UMECIT defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

UMECIT scores more
38%
level
31%
Union Cocle scores more
31%

UMECIT at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "UMECIT will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
UMECIT
LDDWD
Cocle
DWDWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: UMECIT host Union Cocle

September 22, 2026: UMECIT take on Union Cocle in Liga Panameña de Fútbol. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.